7 Binary Options – Thinkorswim

How to really, truly calculate expected move?

Hi everybody. Hopefully this post doesn't sound too rant-y but I'm pretty frustrated by the amount of info out there that I'm not able to pick up on. There just seems to be a million ways to do calculated expected move. Here's what I've gathered so far.
There seems to be two general methods:
First Method: IV-Based
where P = price, IV = annualized implied volatility, DTE = days to expiration [0]
This means that there is a 68% probability that the stock in question will be between -1 and +1 sigma at the date of expiration, a 95% probability between -2 and +2, and a 99% probability between -3 and +3.
Sometimes 250-252 is used instead of 365, which seems to be the case when DTE refers to market days until expiration. Is that correct?
There are a number of ways to calculate IV. I would appreciate it if somebody could elaborate on which might be best and the differences between them:
  1. ThinkOrSwim uses the Bjerksund-Stensland Model [1] - I assume this is the "annualized" implied volatility aforementioned, because it is an IV value assigned to the stock as a whole ... what does that mean? I thought IV values were only calculated for a specific option contract??
    1. As an aside, ToS in particular confuses me because none of the IVs seem to correlate - Exhibit A
  2. I thought I might look into how VIX was priced off of SPY [2], as an analog, and use it as a basis for finding IV for any other stock as a whole. I don't know where they got their formula from
  3. Backsolve for IV using Black-Scholes [3]. This would only gives one value for IV, which I think only applies to that specific option contract and not to the stock as a whole??
  4. Some websites say to use the IV given that is closest to the desired time period [4] - of course I have no idea how the IV is calculated in the first place (Bjerksund-Stensland again? Black-Scholes?) What's the difference between using the IV of a weekly or a yearly option?
  5. Brenner and Subrahmanyam [5] - understood that this seems to be just an approximation. Should I be looking at formulas from 1988, however?
A very big question of mine is why there is an implied volatility for the stock as a whole and an implied volatility for every other options contract. I can kind of understand it both ways - why should a later-expiry contract have the same IV as an earlier-expiry contract? On the other hand, why should they be different? Why isn't there just one IV for the stock as a whole?

Second Method: Straddle-Based
My understanding is that this is more used for binary events like earnings, but in general I've found two methods:
I have no idea where [5] comes from and I can sort of understand 6 but not really.

In the end, I'm just trying to be as accurate as possible. Is there a best, preferred method to calculating the expected move of a stock in a given timeframe? Is there a best, preferred method to calculating IV (I'm inclined to go with ToS's model simply because they're large and trusted). Is there some Python library out there that already does this? For a retail trader like me, does it even matter??
Any help is appreciated. Thanks!
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Binary options strategy?

If you know anything about binary options you probably know how difficult it is to make money in it. Today I was thinking about this indicator that I sort of invented myself. It does not come in Thinkorswim and must be drawn using a series of lines. What it involves is taking the high and low and low of a certain time period (not daily or weekly, more like a certain number of hours). Then drawing a line from the intersection between the horizontal line of the high and low of the period and the vertical line at the end of the period on a certain angle. Then those angled lines would act as a boundary constraining the price action within them for the period that the upcoming time period that the high low was taken from generally if the conditions of the indicator are well met. It's a matter of figuring out what time period to take the high and low from and the angle to put the line on, but if configured a certain way this kind of indicator might yield a good winning ratio. What are your thoughts?
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