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H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system
Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are. TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details. This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.
For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX! I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose. This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem. I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.
I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:
I'm using the stop entry version - so I wait for the price to trade beyond the confirmation candle(in the direction of my trade) before entering. I don't have any data to support this decision, but I've always preferred this method over retracement-limit entries. Maybe I just like the feeling of a higher winrate even though there can be greater R:R using a limit entry. Variety is the spice of life.
I put my stop loss right at the opposite edge of the confirmation candle. NOT at the edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. I'll get into this more below - not enough trades are saved to justify the wider stops. (Wider stop means less $ per pip won, assuming you still only risk 1%).
All my profit/loss statistics are based on a 1% risk per trade. Because 1 is real easy to multiply.
There are definitely some questionable trades in here, but I tried to make it as mechanical as possible for evaluation purposes. They do fit the definitions of the system, which is why I included them. You could probably improve the winrate by being more discretionary about your trades by looking at support/resistance or other techniques.
I didn't use MBB much for either entering trades, or as support/resistance indicators. Again, trying to be pretty mechanical here just for data collection purposes. Plus, we all make bad trading decisions now and then, so let's call it even.
As stated in the title, this is for H1 only. These results may very well not play out for other time frames - who knows, it may not even work on H1 starting this Monday. Forex is an unpredictable place.
I collected data to show efficacy of taking profit at three different levels: -61.8%, -100% and -161.8% fib levels described in the system using the passive trade management method(set it and forget it). I'll have more below about moving up stops and taking off portions of a position.
And now for the fun. Results!
Total Trades: 241
TP at -61.8%: 177 out of 241: 73.44%
TP at -100%: 156 out of 241: 64.73%
TP at -161.8%: 121 out of 241: 50.20%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 5.22%
TP at -100%: 23.55%
TP at -161.8%: 29.14%
As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker. EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.
A Note on Spread
As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits. Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way). However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades. You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term. Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.
Time of Day
Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either. On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
7pm-4am: Fewer setups, but winrate high.
5am-6am: Lots of setups, but but winrate low.
12pm-3pm Medium number of setups, but winrate low.
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate. That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.
Moving stops up to breakeven
This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers. Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability. One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)? Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 5.36%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): -1.01% (yes, a net loss)
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right? Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 46.4%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 17.97%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%
Winrate(breakeven doesn't count as a win): 65.97%
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 11.60%
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert. I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall. The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.
2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops
Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it. Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL. Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.
As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular. Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system. This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here). Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses. Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels). Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant. One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak. EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
Total Trades: 75
TP at -61.8%: 84.00%
TP at -100%: 73.33%
TP at -161.8%: 60.00%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 53.33%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 53.33% (yes, oddly the exact same winrate. but different trades/profits)
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account):
TP at -61.8%: 18.13%
TP at -100%: 26.20%
TP at -161.8%: 34.01%
Moving SL up to 0% when the price hits -61.8%, TP at -100%: 19.20%
Taking half position off at -61.8%, moving SL up to 0%, TP remaining half at -100%: 17.29%
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much. I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system. This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions. There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated. I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful. Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.
What I will trade
Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
"System Details" I described above.
TP at -161.8%
Static SL at opposite side of confirmation candle - I won't move stops up to breakeven.
Trade only 7am-11am and 4pm-11pm signals.
Nothing where spread is more than 25% of trade width.
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!
Other Technical Details
ATR is only slightly elevated in this date range from historical levels, so this should fairly closely represent reality even after the COVID volatility leaves the scalpers sad and alone.
The sample size is much too small for anything really meaningful when you slice by hour or pair. I wasn't particularly looking to test a specific pair here - just the system overall as if you were going to trade it on all pairs with a reasonable spread.
Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.) I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.
I'm on the East Coast in the US, so the timestamps are Eastern time.
Time stamp is from the confirmation candle, not the indecision candle. So 7am would mean the indecision candle was 6:00-6:59 and the confirmation candle is 7:00-7:59 and you'd put in your order at 8:00.
I found a couple AM/PM typos as I was reviewing the data, so let me know if a trade doesn't make sense and I'll correct it.
Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes
For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:
Pair - duh
Date/Time - Eastern time, confirmation candle as stated above
Win to -61.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -61.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -100%? - whether the trade made it to the -100% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Win to -161.8%? - whether the trade made it to the -161.8% TP level before it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -61.8% and -100% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -61.8%, but before hitting -100%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -61.8% to -100%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Retracement level between -100% and -161.8% - how deep the price retraced after hitting -100%, but before hitting -161.8%. Be careful to look for the negative signs, it's easy to mix them up. Using the fib% levels defined in ParallaxFX's original thread. A plain hyphen "-" means it did not retrace, but rather went straight through -100% to -161.8%. Positive 100 means it hit the original SL.
Trade Width(Pips) - the size of the confirmation candle, and thus the "width" of your trade on which to determine position size, draw fib levels, etc.
Loser saved by 2 candle stop? - for all losing trades, whether or not the 2-candle stop loss would have saved the trade and how far it ended up getting if so. "No" means it didn't save it, N/A means it wasn't a losing trade so it's not relevant.
Spread(ThinkorSwim) - these are typical spreads for these pairs on ToS.
Spread % of Width - How big is the spread compared to the trade width? Not used in any calculations, but interesting nonetheless.
True Risk(Trade Width + Spread) - I set my SL at the opposite side of the confirmation candle knowing that I'm actually exposing myself to slightly more risk because of the spread(stop order = market order when submitted, so you pay the spread). So this tells you how many pips you are actually risking despite the Trade Width. I prefer this over setting the stop inside from the edge of the candle because some pairs have a wide spread that would mess with the system overall. But also many, many of these trades retraced very nearly to the edge of the confirmation candle, before ending up nicely profitable. If you keep your risk per trade at 1%, you're talking a true risk of, at most, 1.25% (in worst-case scenarios with the spread being 25% of the trade width as I am going with above).
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -61.8% - not going to go into huge detail, see the spreadsheet for calculations if you want. But, in a nutshell, if the trade was a win to 61.8%, it returns a positive # based on 61.8% of the trade width, minus the spread. Otherwise, it returns the True Risk as a negative. Both normalized to the 1% risk you started with.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100% - same as the last, but 100% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -161.8% - same as the last, but 161.8% of Trade Width.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread TP -100%, and move SL to breakeven at 61.8% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then full TP at 100%.
Win or Loss in %(1% risk) including spread take off half of position at -61.8%, move SL to breakeven, TP 100% - uses the retracement level columns to calculate profit/loss the same as the last few columns, but assuming you took of half the position and moved SL to 0% fib level after price hit -61.8%. Then TP the remaining half at 100%.
Overall Growth(-161.8% TP, 1% Risk) - pretty straightforward. Assuming you risked 1% on each trade, what the overall growth level would be chronologically(spreadsheet is sorted by date).
Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:
Date range: 6/11-7/3
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 47.43%
Demo Trading Results
Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc). A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade. I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!
Date range: 7/9-7/30
Adjusted Proft % (takes spread into account): 20.73%
Starting Balance: $5,000
Ending Balance: $6,036.51
Live Trading Results
I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
Hello and thank you for being here again! In this article I want to show you how I structure my operations by trading in the currency market. If it can give you ideas or help you in your process, the objective of this post will be more than fulfilled. I will try to be as clear and direct as possible. I'll go point by point: Index
1. How to trade
2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?
3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading
4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?
5. Learn to create robust trading strategies
6. Best Forex Trading Strategies
6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria
6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades
6.3. Strategies with a controlled return/risk
7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems
8. Diversify in Forex
9. What currencies to trade on Forex
10. Why invest (only) in Forex
11. Steps to trade
12. How to start as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)
Focusing on the basics and keeping it simple. Let me explain, you don't have to rely on hyper-complex strategies, use the software that PETA it and put it on the server next to your broker ... you don't have to be the best programmer, much less get dirty on the graphics of your platform to win money in Forex. You need systems. The systems work. Results-oriented companies and work methods are systems-based. You should start applying and creating systems because they will allow you:
Know what you can expect (return and risk) in results.
Measure what you do .
Know when what you are applying is stopping working.
Yes, that sitting in front of the computer, looking and saying "I think EUR / USD is going to rise" is the most common thing, but the normal thing here is to lose money. You need winning strategies to start the fight.
2. Intraday or swing trading in Forex?
This question is an interesting question and I make a small indent if you are just starting out. Swing trading are operations that usually last several days and when we talk about intraday or day trading we refer to operations that are closed on the same day. Well, which one then? Like everything in life, it depends (we are). You have to learn that there is no “best for all”. In my case I combine both operations because I dedicate myself full time to this, but if you are just starting out or are one of the people who get stressed out with trading, I recommend that you focus on swing trading. As you consolidate here you can start to scale and seek to diversify by doing intraday. But again, this is just something that I recommend based on my own experience and from people I have known over the years.
3. Automatic or Manual Forex Trading
Not all automated Forex trading systems are a panacea, nor are all discretionary or manual systems bad. Stop looking at it like that, we're only talking about execution. This is precisely why I am opting for automated execution. We could talk at length about this and if you find it interesting I can dedicate an article just to it. But think that automation is just how strategy is carried out. Whether this is a winner or a loser is the basis of everything. Automating a losing strategy does not make it a winner, it is only about applying strategies that are profitable and ensuring that they are executed in the best way (in manual we always cheat alone).
4. Is analysis the key to Forex trading?
Many people think that technical analysis is the key to beating the market and defend it to the last consequences. The same happens with those who think that the only way to make money in the foreign exchange market is through fundamental analysis. So what really works? What really works and you can check. What good is it if you tell me that this or the other is the best method if you haven't even sat down to draw numbers. Many times it is not with what, but how. That is, they can be different valid methods if they are done well. But for this you need statistics of what you are doing. >>>Recommended Forex Broker: Plus500 - Visit official website<<<
5. Learn to create robust trading strategies
Let's first see what a robust trading strategy is all about. As traders, we know what has happened in the past, but we don't know what will happen in the market tomorrow. That is why we need systems that are well adapted to changing market circumstances. How can we know systems adapt well to alterations in the spread, prices ...? Simulating those alterations, something like simulating those conditions and seeing how they behave. There are different tests for this such as: Walk Forward test, Montecarlo, and Multimarket. These tests give us an idea of how robust our created trading system is and give us a reference. Be careful, I said reference, not absolute truth. Then we will test them, our goal is to leave as little space as possible to chance.
6. Best Forex Trading Strategies
You may be wondering how you are going to manage to create profitable strategies and start with all this. Calm down, there are tools for this, but the important thing here is that you know that the strategies that tend to be more stable over time and give better results are:
6.1. Trading strategies with very simple entry and exit criteria
The opposite of what you may have been told. The simpler our Forex trading systems are, the more likely they will continue to work overtime. I have seen this myself and I know it first hand. Also, which is more likely to stop working, a system based on six indicators or a system based on one or two? That six indicators continue to give results for years and years is not easy. Instead, only one or two are more so. Still, trading systems should always be supervised.
6.2. Systems with a not very high number of operations or trades
Sometimes when we become obsessed with being in the market constantly making gazillions of trades, we are giving our broker money and taking it out of our pocket. More is not better in trading, better is better. This is about getting the most money with the least risk, not giving it to your broker.
7. Establish connection and disconnection rules for your systems
All methods of trading sound great. The problem is when they start to lose. Some tell you that you have to continue, that the system is the system… But what if the system is stopping working? After all, we live in a changing world and our money is not infinite. The reality is that many people do not know how to determine when the system is failing or when this happens because they are applying it incorrectly. If you execute the strategies in an automated way you are already saving this, then what you need is a rule to deactivate your strategies at a certain point. To do this, it is enough to monitor them with platforms such as Bluefox or Myfxbook to know what the performance of each is.
8. Diversify in Forex
If we deactivate a Rubén strategy, we stop trading. Not if you activate another that has been doing it well. It is not about you running a Forex trading system or two, it is about having different systems: the best in real and a demo base created that you can include in your real account when you deactivate one because their performance has dropped. You can diversify by youI frame (temporality time) on assets (currencies) or types of systems (trend, mean reversion ...). The objective of diversifying is to seek a more stable return, many people do for this is to introduce many systems without more, if you do this you will achieve the opposite, you will be increasing the risk.
I will not be the one to tell you that you should invest in Forex and not in another market. Each one belongs to his father and mother and has its good and not so good things. Of course, one thing is clear, wherever you do it, remember the power of specialization. There are traders who focus on one or two assets and they are profitable. In the end, that's what it's all about, isn't it? This operation can be extrapolated to different assets such as raw materials, indices and cryptocurrencies. Yes, cryptocurrencies too. In fact, my operations are mainly based on currencies and cryptocurrencies (85% in the first group and 15% in the second). But I have to say that cryptocurrency trading has given me a pleasant surprise this year. Again, if you are starting, do not do it with many assets or you will saturate yourself. Start step by step and diversify as you evolve. Jack of all trades, master of none.
11. Steps to trade Forex Reddit
If you've gotten this far, it may not be entirely clear to you how the hell I trade, then I'm going to summarize it in steps:
I create statistically profitable trading strategies and verify through tests that they are robust.
I put them on a demo account to make sure they work perfectly.
Once they meet the requirements that I demand of them, I pass them to real.
In real account, I manage my systems connecting and disconnecting them according to their performance (always under objective criteria).
12. How to start trading Forex Reddit as a professional trader (without knowing how to program)
But Rubén, I haven't studied computer science and I'm not particularly good at math. Don't worry if you don't know how to program, it is possible to do all this using tools that will do it for you. For years I have programmed my own systems myself and that's fine, but now I'm concentrating on managing them and getting the most out of them. Do not think that this is the robot that will make you earn millions of euros while you drink the gin and tonic on the beach. We will read soon with new posts about trading, Forex, cryptocurrencies, platforms ... Good luck! To start trading, open an account on Plus500, one of the leading Forex brokers: Click Here
Dollar checks its watch. Analysis as of 22.10.2020
The markets have been obsessed with fiscal stimulus recently, but the demand for European bonds may push EURUSD to the north if the ECB expands the bond-buying programme on 29 October. Let’s discuss that and make a trading plan.
Weekly fundamental forecast for dollar
In the financial markets, time is as important a factor as a price direction. Many traders would lose their money having chosen a wrong moment for making a trade, even though an asset’s price direction was predicted correctly. It is believed that fiscal stimulus will weaken the US dollar as stocks will grow, global risk appetite will increase, and demand for safe-haven assets will fall. The question is: will the economic support be provided before or after the elections? In the latter case, Donald Trump’s unwillingness to recognize voting results will support uncertainty and the greenback. According to economic adviser Larry Kudlow, the stimulus talks are going really well, and both the economy and the market will profit if a deal is made within the next two weeks. At the same time, the Republicans don’t accept the prospective amount of $1.9 trillion. Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi believes, a deal will be signed in spite of the Republicans’ resistance, but admits it may happen only after the elections. An extra support before the election would give Trump and the USD extra points. That’s why the dollar’s weakness and the S&P 500’s fall mean the markets are doubting that the Congress will approve of the Democrats’ package before Joe Biden takes the president’s chair.
US candidates rating
https://preview.redd.it/1r517r7wvmu51.jpg?width=603&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25fa487a75921d355516226df6c1990475abb116 Source: Nordea Markets. Unlike fiscal stimulus, the US elections have already been scheduled. At the same time, the Blue Wave may raise the S&P 500 in the short term, and weaken the greenback, with a subsequent correction. On the other hand, the markets are overconfident about the Democrats’ victory, which shows itself in lower volatility at Forex. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was on the top of ratings, but it was Trump who opened a bottle of champaign. If he is re-elected unexpectedly, investors should consider selling the AUDUSD and buying the USDCNH amid a risk of US-China trade war resumption.
The QE programme extension period is a question of time too. If that happens at the ECB’s meeting on 29 October, we can develop a trading strategy of buying the EURUSD as the quotes will fall amid weak statistics on Germany’s and the eurozone’s business activity, and fixing profits after the Executive Board’s meeting. Such a strategy is based on high demand for periphery countries’ bonds. The price for them will grow if QE gets extended. The problem is, the ECB may not take that step at the end of October. I think that such factors as Joe Biden’s victory and a capital flow from the US debt market to Europe may raise EURUSD quotes despite the second pandemic wave and the eurozone’s economic weakness. Wait for data on Europe’s PMI to make a decision about medium-term trades. Until then, focus on intraday trading with narrow targets. For more information follow the link to the website of the LiteForex https://www.liteforex.com/blog/analysts-opinions/dollar-checks-its-watch-analysis-as-of-22102020/?uid=285861726&cid=62423
[WallText] For those who really want to be forex traders.
Im sry if u find some grammatical errors, english is not my mother language. Let me know and i will fix it. First of all, look for at least half an hour without interruptions to read this manual. This is the system that has created trading professionals. He has done it and today he continues doing it, as it happened with me. It is not a system written in any forum, in fact I believe that it has been the first to collect all the ideas and create a structure to follow to carry them out, but these same ideas and procedures have been the ones that the winning traders have used during decades and will continue to use, since they are based on completely objective and real foundations. Let's go to it: Hi all. It is known that the observation time makes the patterns elucidate, and after some time in the forum and throughout this trading world I have found many patterns in the responses of the people, I have reasoned about them, and I have realized their failures, why they fail to be profitable. There are people who have put effort into this. Not all, but there are people who have really read a lot, studied a lot, learned a lot and tried a lot, and even then they are not able to achieve stable profitability. The question is: Is there enough in that effort? Is there a specific moment in the line of learning where you start to be profitable? The question is, logically. There are traders that generate constant profitability. Hedge funds, investment firms ... and the difference is in areas where people for some reason do not want to invest time. Why are there more messages in the strategy forums than in the psychology, journals and fundamental analysis together? As human beings, our brain is programmed to look for quick positive responses. In nature, the brain does not understand the concept of long-term investment. There is only a short-term investment made from the difference between what we think will cost us something and what we think it will contribute. If we think that it will cost us more than it can give us, we simply do not feel motivated. It is a simple mechanism. The market plays with these mechanisms. There are more scalpers created from the search for that positive emotion than from the search for a scalping system. In short, we are not programmed to operate, and there lies the fact that only a huge minority of operators are profitable. Among others, I have observed several patterns of behavior that make a trader fail, and they are: - Search for immediate pleasure: The trader wants to feel that he has won on the one hand, and on the other he wants to avoid the feeling of loss. Following this there are many traders who place a very low take profit and a very high stop loss. This is not bad if the probabilities have been reviewed before, the mathematical factor of hope, the relation with the drawdown .. but in the majority of the cases absolutely nothing of statistics is known. There is only that need to win. They win, they win, they win, until one day the odds do their job and the stop loss is touched, returning the account to its origins or leaving it with less money than it started. This does not work. - Search for immediate wealth: Again it is something immediate. People want good emotions, and we want them already. The vast majority of traders approach this world with fantasies of wealth, women and expensive cars, but do not visualize hard work, the sickly hard work behind all this. From there underlie behaviors like eternally looking for new robots or expert advisors that promise a lot of money, or new systems. The type of trader that has this integrated pattern is characterized by doing nothing more than that. Spend the day looking for new strategies Of course he never manages to earn constant money. - Think that trading is easy: Trading is not easy, it is simple. Why? Because when you get the wisdom and experience necessary to find yourself in a state of superior knowledge about the market and effectively make money, it is very simple; you just have to apply the same equation again and again. However, it is not easy to reach this equation. This equation includes variables such as risk understanding, mathematics, certain characteristics in the personality that must be assimilated little by little, intelligence, a lot of experience .. This is not easy. This is a business, and in fact it is one of the most difficult businesses in the world. It may seem simple to see a series of candles on a screen or perhaps a line, or any type of graphic, but it is not. Behind the screen there are hundreds of thousands of very intelligent professionals, very disciplined, very educated, very ... This business is the most profitable in the world if you know how to carry, since it is based on the concept of compound interest, but it is also one of the most difficult. And I repeat. It's a business, not a game. I think you'll never hear a lawyer say to his boss: "We're going to focus all our time on finding a strategy that ALWAYS makes us win a trial, ALWAYS." What does it sound ridiculous? It sounds to me just as ridiculous for trading. But you are not to blame, you have been subconsciously deceived through the advertising brokers and your own internal desires, to think that this is something easy. - Lack of discipline: Trading is not something you can do 10 minutes on Monday and 6 on Thursday. This is not a game, and until you get a regular schedule you can not start earning money. There are people who open a graph one day for 5 minutes, then return to their normal life and then one week returns to look at it for other minutes. Trading should not be treated as a hobby. If you want to win "some money" I advise you not even to get in, because you will end up losing something or a lot of money. You have to think if you really want trading to be part of your life. It's like when you meet a girl and you want to get married. Do you really want to get into this with all the consequences? Because otherwise it will not work. Visualize the hard work behind this. Candle nights, frustrations, several hundred dollars lost (at the beginning) .. enter the world of trading with a really deep reason, if you lose a time and money that no one will return, and both things are finite! - Know something and pretend to know everything: Making money in the markets is not based on painting the graph as a child a paper with crayon wax and pretend to make money. It is not based on drawing lines or circles, or squares. It is based on understanding the operation of all these tools, the background of the why of the tools of trading. A trend line only marks the cycle of a wave within a longer time frame, within a longer time frame, and so on indefinitely. In turn, this wave is divided into waves with a specific behavior, divided into smaller waves and Etcetera, and understanding that dynamic is fundamental to winning. It is not the fact of drawing a line. That can be done by an 8 year old boy. It is the fact of UNDERSTANDING why. There are traders who read two technical analysis books and a delta analysis book and believe that they are professionals, but do they really understand the behavior of the market? The answer is in their portfolios. After this explanation that only 10% will have read, I will try to detail step by step something that is 90% yearning, and that will have quickly turned the scroll of your mouse to find the solution to all your problems while supporting the beer in a book of " become rich ", rotten by lack of use. These steps must be carried out one by one, starting with the first, fulfilling it, moving on to the second, successively and growing. If steps are taken for granted, or not fully met, it simply will not work. I know this will happen and the person who did it will think "Bah, this does not work." and you will return to your top strategy search routine. That said, let start: 1º Create a REAL account with 50 dollars approximately: _ Forget the demo accounts. They are a utopia, they do not work. There is infinite liquidity, without emotions and without slipagge. These things will change when we enter the real market, and the most experienced person in the world will notice a sharp drop in their profitability when it happens to real accounts. And not only using a demo account has disadvantages, but using a real one has advantages. We will have a real slipagge with real liquidity. Real requotes and more. The most important: We will work our emotions at the same time. Because yes, we will lose or win a couple of cents, but that has a subconscious impact of loss. This means that we will begin to expand our comfort zone from the start. Using a demo account is simply a disadvantage. 2º Buy a newspaper in the stationery or in Chinese (optional), or write one online or in Word: A newspaper will be of GREAT help. You can not imagine, for those of you who do not have one, how a newspaper can exponentiate our learning curve. It is simply absurd not to have a diary. It's like taking a ticket of 5 instead of one of 100. In this diary we will write down observations that we make about the operations that we will carry out in points that I will explain later of this same manual. We will divide the newspaper into 2 parts:
1 part: The operation itself. We will write the reasons for each operation. The why we have done it.
2 part: How we feel. We will unburden ourselves without explaining how we feel, what our intuition tells us about that particular operation and so on.
How to use: We will read the newspaper once a week, thinking about the emotions we felt each day and in what situations, and the reasons. Soon, we will begin to realize that we have certain patterns in the way we feel and operate, and we will have the ability to change them. We can also learn from mistakes that we make, and keep them always in a diary. 3º Look for a strategy that has the following characteristics:
Make it SIMPLE. Nothing of 4 or more indicators or the colors of the gay flag drawn on the graph based on 1000 lines. Why? Because there is always an initial enthusiasm and maybe we can follow a complex strategy for a week, but burned that motivation, saturates us and we will leave it aside.
Therefore, the strategy must be simple. If we use metatrader, the default indicators work. No macd's no-lag and similar tools. That does not lead anywhere. And if you do not believe it, I'll tell you that in all areas of life comes marketing. In addition to trading towards MMA and now I do powerlifts, and there are 1000 exercises to do. However, the classics are still working and work very well. It seems that sellers of strange sports equipment do not share the same opinion, that the only thing they want is to sell! 4º Understand the strategy:
We must gut each process of the strategy and reason about it. What does this indicator do? What does this process? Why this and not another? Why this exit ?. Some strategies will be based on unspecified outputs. This does not suppose any problem because as we get experience in that specific strategy, we will remember situations that have occurred, we will see situations that are repeated (patterns) and we will be able to find better starts and entrances. Everything is in our hands.
5° Collect essential statistical information:
This part is FUNDAMENTAL, and no operator can have as much security in itself when operating as if it uses a strategy that has at least positive mathematical hope and an acceptable drawdown.
Step 1: To carry out this collection of information you need to test the strategy for at least 100 signals. Yes, 100 signals.
Assuming it is an intraday strategy and we do an operation per day, it will take us 100 days (3 months and 10 days approx) to carry out the study. Logically these figures can change depending on the number of operations that we make up to date with the strategy. I have no doubt that after reading this manual we will go for a quick strategy of scalpers, with 100 signals every 10 minutes where the seller comes out with a big smile in his promotional video. I personally recommend a system of maximum 2 daily operations to start, but this point is personal. Is it a long time? Go! It turns out that a college student of average intelligence takes 6 years to finish a career. It takes 6 years just to train, and there are even more races. This does not guarantee any profitability, and in any case most of Sometimes it will get a static return and not based on compound interest. I can never aspire to more. The market offers compound profitability, there will be no bosses, nor schedules that we do not impose. We will always have work, and we can earn a lot more money than most people with careers or masters. Is it a long time? I do not think so. As I was saying, we will test the strategy 100 times with our REAL account that we created in step 1. Did you decide to use a demo account? Better look for another manual; This has to be something serious. They are 100 dollars and will be the best investment of all in your career as a trader.
Step 2: Once with the report of the 100 strategies in hand, we will collect the following information:
How many times have we won and how many lost. Afterwards, we will find the percentage of correct answers.
How much have we won and how much have we lost? Afterwards, we will find the average profit and the average loss.
Step 3: With this information we will complete the mathematical hope formula:
(1 + average profit / average loss) * (percentage of correct answers / 100) -1 Example:
Of the 100 operations there are 50 winners and 50 losers, then the success rate is 50%.
Our average profit is 20 dollars and our average loss is 10 dollars.
Filling the formula: (1 + 20/10) * (50/100) -1 (1 + 2) * (0,5) -1 3 * 0.5 - 1 1,5 - 1 = 0,5 In this example the mathematical expectation is 0.5. It is POSITIVE, because it is greater than 0. From 0, we will know that this strategy will make us earn money over time ALWAYS we respect the strategy. If after a few days we modify it, then we will have to find this equation again with another 100 different operations. Easy? A result of "0" would mean that this strategy does not win or lose, but in the long run we would LOSE due to the spread and other random factors. You have to try to find a strategy that, once this study is done, the result of your mathematical hope is greater than 0.2 as MINIMUM. Finding this formula will also give a curious fact. The greater the take profit in relation to the stop loss, as a general rule more positive will be our mathematical hope. This has given many pages of discursiones about whether to place take profit> stop loss or vice versa. If our stop was larger than the take profit, then the other ratio (% earned /% lost) should be yes or yes positive. But this is just curiosities. let's keep going:
6° Expand our comfort zone:
We will not be able to work with operations of 10 million dollars overnight, but we can progressively condition ourselves to that path. Assuming all of the above, and with a real account, some experience in the 3 months of information gathering and a positive mathematical hope, we are ready to operate in real with some consistency. But how to carry it out? The comfort zone is the psychological limits we have before feeling fear or emotional tension. When we get into a fight, we have left our comfort zone and we feel tension, unless we have a psychopathic disorder. Every time we lean out onto a 300-meter balcony from a skyscraper, we move away from the comfort zone. Every time we speak to a depampanante woman, we move away from our comfort zone. Our brain creates a comfort zone to differentiate what we usually do and is not substantially dangerous, from the unknown and potentially dangerous to our survival or reproduction. And whenever the brain interprets that these two aspects are in danger, we will feel negative emotions like fear, disgust, loneliness, fury, etcetera. This topic is much more profound and you would have to read several volumes of evolutionism to understand the why of each thing. The only thing that interests us here is the "what", and the one, that is, that there is a certain comfort zone that must be expanded without any problems. With trading, exactly the same thing happens. The forex market is a virtual environment in which we lose or gain things, but our brain does not differentiate between reality and what is not, it only attends to stimuli of a certain type. We can lose food in the middle of the forest or also a crude oil operation. Our goal is to condition our subconscious so that it is progressively accepting lost and small benefits, and as time goes by, bigger. The exercise to achieve this is the following:
We will operate on that account of 100 dollars with our mathematically positive strategy for 3 more months.
After these three months, our account should have benefits, because of the mathematically positive strategy.
We will enter 200 dollars more and we will operate a month more raising the lots according to our risk management (I do not advise that the risk is greater than 2%)
At this point, I know how hard it is to resign myself to impatience, but follow those times and do not skip it even if you feel safe, but you will fail, it's simple. Let's keep going:
After that month, we will raise our capital again with a new income. This time we will enter 1000 dollars (save if you do not have 1000 dollars loose, you will recover later on, do you want to make money, enter 1000 dollars.
We will test the operation one month with this new injection. We probably notice difficulties. More blockages, more euphoria when winning ... how will we know when to move on to the next entry? When we do not feel ANYTHING or at most something very shallow, when win or lose If observing the wall and operating is for you the same from an emotional point of view, it is time to enter more money.
We will follow this procedure until we have a basic account of 21000 dollars. The amounts to be paid will depend on our ability to not feel emotions, a capacity that will be taking over time.
We will raise capital until we feel that we block too much. In that case we will drawdown to a more acceptable amount, and we will continue at that level until get discipline and lack of reactivity at that level. Later, we will go up.
If we want to earn more money, we will continue entering and entering. Always following the conditioning scheme of 1 month.
Why a month? A study conducted in the United States revealed that the subconscious needs an average of 28 days to create new habits or eliminate old habits. Emotional reactions are part of the habits. If we maintain some pressure of any emotion during the opportune time, in this case 28 days, will create tolerance and the subconscious will need a more intense version of the stimulus to activate. AND THAT'S ALL! Follow these steps and you will triumph. Here is the golden chalice, the tomb of Jesus or whatever you want to call it. There is no more mystery in the world of trading. This system will accompany you during the next year, year and a half. It's the one I used and it WORKS. Once done, you will have a very profitable system integrated into your being, since not only will it be mathematically viable, but you will also have the necessary experience to make it infinitely more profitable yet. In addition, you will have psychology fully worked on a professional level to have conditioned your subconscious gradually. Happy trading to all of u guys.-
Features of creating a trading strategy for successful Forex trading
https://preview.redd.it/r5svxndvm6d41.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e1325a6ea9c38f675ed10243950119ebd839a84 Optimization is one of the main adjustments - you should choose the parameters that will be most suitable. It is also very important that the trading strategy be qualitatively automated, if you do not have programming skills, then you should seek the help of professional developers of trading advisers. For example, you can make a request here - https://nordman-algorithms.com/metatrader-programming/ Only in this way can you tailor your strategy to existing market realities. The development of the trading system is the basic need of any trader who wants to earn money. After all, regular changes in the market force to make adjustments - otherwise, even the most successful strategy ceases to function correctly. The main mistake of traders who consider themselves invincible is that they create a truly successful system that regularly makes a profit, but does not monitor how the market changes. The absence of small adjustments will not allow them to count on stable profits in the future, because the market will change rapidly, unlike the strategy. A profitable trading strategy is the cornerstone of the success of any trader. If a beginner has already figured out the nuances of forex trading, he understood what technical and fundamental analysis is, but now he needs a profitable trading strategy that will allow him to count on further success. The main problem is that there are a huge number of trading strategies on the Internet, in most cases they allow you to earn money, but there are also those that lead to a loss of funds. Therefore, a trading strategy is an individual matter of each trader. In practice, it immediately becomes clear that intuitive trading is a one-time opportunity to make money; in the future such trade will not bring anything good. A profitable trading strategy is required, which will be based on various data and allows counting on long-term success. To create a trading strategy, you need to use statistics, as well as adaptability. Now we will try to figure out how to correctly create a trading strategy. The nuances of developing a trading strategy We begin to create a trading strategy - initially it is necessary to determine the timeframes, as well as the frequency of transactions, indicators should be optimal for the trader, if they allow him to work psychologically comfortably, then this is ideal. Answering these questions, you can effectively choose trading instruments. Why are these nuances important when creating a trading strategy? Novice traders try to do everything in order to make money now, refusing the long-term perspective - this method is effective, but you will have to spend a lot of time and constantly be near the workplace so as not to miss profitable deals. But these are not the main problems, the market is constantly changing, it forces you to adjust your trading strategy based on the data received. In cases where traders simply buy systems, do not try to change them, and only occasionally make transactions, the strategy will soon prove to be ineffective. Questions of the main hypothesis of the trading system are really important. A hypothesis is always the basis of a trading system. But making money on the hypothesis itself is incredibly difficult, it is necessary to cover it with a technical shell, the trader must have his own rules, techniques that allow you to make profitable transactions. Statistical indicators of trading systems It is very important to understand that even the most thoughtful trading systems cannot work only for earnings, not all signals will be profitable. That is why it is necessary to understand the statistics of your system. There are special testers that allow you to check the statistics of the trading system. Despite the presence of automatic tools, it is strongly recommended that you additionally analyze yourself to deal with all the nuances. Such testing allows you to determine the final return, see the nuances of the functioning of the system. Now we will deal with additional indicators that can be determined by testing. You will be able to determine how many transactions were completed during the specified period, from the received number you need to calculate the number of profitable / non-profitable transactions. Even in the most profitable strategies, there are a huge number of non-profitable transactions, but this is not an indicator that the system is not functioning. Traders need to earn money not by forecasting accuracy, but by the ability to maintain a profitable position and timely close a loss-making one. We analyze the total percentage of loss-making as well as profitable trades. After that, we determine the average stop loss, as well as take profit. If your strategy has a profit in the region of 50% (such is its probability), but the average indicators of profitable transactions exceed unprofitable ones, then such a strategy can really be considered profitable. Nuances of adaptation of the trading system We have already figured out how to correctly create our own trading system, monitor its statistical indicators. The time has come to adapt the trading system, we already mentioned this, market changes should be monitored, otherwise the strategy will become inoperative over time. Imagine that we conducted an analysis, and the data obtained are really positive, but this can not continue all the time. The data is constantly changing, this forces traders to regularly adapt their trading system, taking into account all the changes received. The evolution of markets is the main reason for the changes; they may be insignificant, but they definitely cannot be ignored. Among these changes are the correction of the exchange infrastructure, as well as the appearance of new indices, the emergence of new correlations. Despite the fact that such changes initially seem insignificant - they gradually affect the effectiveness of the trading strategy, if not adapted in a timely manner. Forex trading is a segment that is constantly evolving. Given the popularity of this method of earning - the number of newcomers is growing regularly. But these novice traders do not always understand what exactly needs to be done in order to earn money normally. They are trying to buy various tools, systems that guarantee fabulous income. In general, often this leads to a complete loss of the deposit. It is very important to initially focus on creating a trading strategy that will be considered truly high-quality and successful. But after such a system is created and tested in the auction, you need to carefully monitor the market and its changes. Constant adaptation of the system is the key to becoming a truly smart and good trader. Yes, you will have to spend time analyzing the market and correcting it, but it will pay off. You can constantly make your trading strategy more thoughtful and high-quality, which will certainly affect the number of profitable transactions.
https://preview.redd.it/nrbrb96i6in21.png?width=240&format=png&auto=webp&s=2792d16cbb58e45bf8d947cbde8b810b6e641534 Genesis Vision Just one of those days… Hmm, this looks like an interesting project. Chart looks good plus it didn’t really go up a lot the last couple of days, unlike the other coins. Or maybe it didn’t go up because there is something that I don’t know yet? Let’s look online a bit longer to see if something fishy is going on before I buy some. The chart does look really good! No, nothing out of the ordinary here, I think it might just not have gone up yet but it probably will. If Bitcoin manages to not drop double digit percentages out of nowhere today that is… Seems to be close to resistance, and there are a couple BTC worth of sell orders at 140 sats, I’ll wait for that to break, and buy when it shows some strength. Getting close now, let’s wait for it to break by gluing my face to the screen to watch the 1 minute chart. There it goes! Ok, I’ll start with a small buy - Oh man It’s really going! Buy a little more - Market buy ALL the things! What, no wait. No not again! Please, please no not again… Argh… https://preview.redd.it/cup9237n6in21.png?width=256&format=png&auto=webp&s=91264c3cbfe10a0d9e699b1774a2e74b7d79bb49 Guess I will hold for a couple of days, don’t feel like taking a loss. It will probably rebound on the ‘resistance turned into support’ zone, right? I am already watching this chart for 2 hours.. I should really go do something productive. Lets just set some sell orders here and here. That market buy order really got my buy-In high, close to a 2% loss at present. I Totally wasted this evening, and I am still in the red. How is that even possible? Next morning Let’s check my portfolio. Ah man the support didn’t hold, now what? Actually, it looks like this might even go lower now. This 130 sats support is really strong so I guess I’ll use that as a stop-loss. - Stop loss triggered Oh my god man, why am I always so unlucky? Close to a 5% BTC loss, besides the loss of time. Talking about Bitcoin, how’s the big guy holding up? Hmm also looks weak to be honest. It’s dropping as we speak. Should I sell and rebuy lower? That could at least get me a bit of Bitcoin back. Yeah it’s really dropping now. The entire market is going down. Sell volume is increasing as well. I should really sell some. Whatever just sell it all. Yeah, like I thought, it’s going lower. I’ll rebuy when it goes a little bit lower. There she goes! Just a little bit lower before I buy in, might just get me back all my lost BTC at least! Bit of buying pressure going in now but that’s normal, nothing goes down, or up for that matter, the entire time. I will wait it out, got my buy-in set anyway. Please stop going up. Please STOP going up. Oh my frikkin god, got to buy back higher now. No way, I won’t do that. I’ll wait for it to drop. This is unreal! It won’t go back down. Why won’t it go back down?! Fine I’ll buy it back. Can’t believe it, I always lose, forget it, at least I will get some USD profits when I buy now – Market buy all the things! https://preview.redd.it/vc5eg4vv6in21.png?width=259&format=png&auto=webp&s=5185cc6498524de856db27b2f4bfcb2568ae4ccb NO WAY, IT’S GOING DOWN THE SECOND I BUY? HOW, WHY, WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON? The above is probably an experience that a lot of (retail) traders can relate to, and have probably gone through somewhere in their trading career, be it crypto or any stock, commodity, index or whatever else is possible to trade online. It’s a common problem, and it is the reason why only a small percentage of people manage to ‘beat the market’. People simply have the internal emotional trigger to buy something when gains are in line of sight, and sell something when losses are made. The bars being green (good) and red (bad) also don’t really help with trying to shake off that feeling. Genesis vision tries to solve this problem, giving people willing to invest in cryptocurrencies, forex and in the future probably commodities and indices, the possibility to invest in experienced, successful and hardened traders that have a solid track record, instead of taking the time and trading education (which some of those experienced traders say to be just as expensive in the end as a regular college degree, with all the losses and all) to get solid results themselves. Obviously this already exists. You can give your money to for example hedge funds, private equity funds and nowadays even robo-advisors. But do they really get the biggest return on investment? Are you important enough to have the best trader in the company actually managing your account? Are you leaving your hard earned money at the company that hired the best traders at all? Or do they squander and play the above mentioned game themselves? Who knows really. In the end, you give your money to a company that says it could, possibly, get you a whopping 7% return after a year. But only if everything goes right, the economy doesn’t implode or a stock they are too heavily invested in doesn’t go belly-up. Scrap that, they will make a whopping 7% return, but they obviously need to take some of those profits for their fees. A entry fee, a profit-fee, some unforeseen fees, and the list goes on and on. When you want to invest some of that money you earned after a long 40 hour workweek, it better be handled by the best, giving you the highest return on investment without any catch. Transparency and clarity Again, Genesis vision tries to solve this. How? By putting EVERY trade on the blockchain, giving extreme clarity in the trades made, and more importantly, the results of the trader or company (called Genesis Vision Manager). This means that people that want to invest their cash can decide for themselves who will handle their funds. No more excuses why the expected return on investment wasn’t accomplished, or uncertainty if any of these companies are actually telling you the truth when it comes to the results they have had with your funds. No more sweeping the bad trades under the rug. We. Can. See. Your. Mistakes. And successes of course! It creates extreme openness, and it gives a lot of power back to the consumer that wants to invest. Most financial instruments are (deliberately made) so hard to grasp and confusing that most general investors don’t even want to bother, and just believe the suit with the impressive building and the nice car. But now you don’t even have to look up the terms collateralized mortgage obligation or the exotic inflation derivative. They have the option to simply look up the manager, his results, and his requirements to invest with (in) him or her. https://preview.redd.it/ghu8t5p17in21.png?width=245&format=png&auto=webp&s=566cff3b153c97ead5c122ba7d775b2fabecd778 Genesis Vision gives the possibility to invest in both Funds and programs. The biggest difference being that investors can withdraw their profits from a fund at any time, while their funds are locked in a program until it ends, receiving a part of the profits made directly linked to the share of the pool they invested in. However, if you are satisfied with your current manager, the program and the results so far, you can select the option to auto-invest your stake into the next program, getting that compounding interest effect rolling. Of course only when you have found the right manager to handle your funds! A loss is obviously still a loss, and although Genesis Vision tries to limit the risk by implementing a tier system to filter managers by their previous results, you can never be sure you actually make gains on your investment. The same rules apply as to investing wherever else. Don’t put it all in one basket, only invest what you are willing to lose, do NOT take out loans or credit to invest and above all do your research before you enter into any program or fund! The dashboard https://preview.redd.it/j8k03ht37in21.png?width=550&format=png&auto=webp&s=9ef4f590ffb25518a293b87993afc205075da288 The Genesis Vision dashboard looks very appealing, going for a futuristic style that resonates with the entire crypto and financial sector. Investors are first shown a couple of filters to make the search for the right vehicle to invest in easy to accomplish. Below the first general filters investors can find the different programs with a vast array of stats available to make the right decision. However, there is a lot going on here, and it would be smart for Genesis to implement some kind of tutorial showing new investors what everything shown on the screen actually means. After finding a program that matches your personal investing style regarding buy-in, duration of the program, entry fee and generally your risk tolerance, the people behind the program can be examined. Managers are able to tell a little bit about themselves and their investment style. Statistics and graphs of previous results are shown and this helps to get some reassurance, or lets you ignore a certain investment possibility. If everything seems to fit, and people are willing to pull the final trigger, they can invest with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether or their own Genesis Vision token. The bottom line Genesis Vision could be the instrument for (crypto)investors to try and maximize their profits, but for the regular amateur trader it will mostly help with erasing their beginner mistakes and trading losses. It gives back the power to the consumer and the client. Where normally the investing is done by traders on for example Wall Street, using complicated schemes to grab as much as possible of the retail investor who is taking all of the risk, Genesis Vision creates transparency, brutally rejects losing managers and lets investors get a honest and deserved piece of the pie. It is yet another example of the power of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, disrupting one of the largest sectors worldwide. That concludes this review! If you want to add anything or have questions, please feel free to comment below. Are you feeling generous, and did you enjoy this article? I accept donations! BTC: 369AyfgLtZ349omHgafUGkrNCGHLuhPGtx ETH: 0xd74635002Af9e191665D2AaDD03921E7f1201387 LTC: MEvKQ1d4GYsyMjqYwizVb6RZmEUjDXj5ty GVT: 0x9450d2c145a7758c1d2bcfd03a1374de90fea028 Connect with me on twitter: @BullishOnCrypts
The era of artificial intelligence: how robots manage capital
Interview with Alexander Tatarsky, creator of the quantum fund How well do you know artificial intelligence? Perhaps you have never heard of it, or maybe it’s quite the opposite and robots are already managing your capital. We were able to interview Alexander Tatarsky — an experienced trader, co-founder and financial director of the Mercury Foundation — a fund that manages capital through A.I.! Alexander introduced us to the concept of his organization and explained the unique idea behind the project. https://preview.redd.it/bulvn62tuw021.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7c6357c83fe7c7afd904a8e9718447801fbdc8a1 Alexander, why did you start trading? How did you start and why did you decide to choose this particular field? Many people know that the Chinese word “crisis” consists of two hieroglyphs. One means “danger”, and the other one — “opportunity.” I considered a global financial crisis of 2008 an opportunity. That’s when I began my professional career in the financial markets. Before those events, I was always very interested in economics (thanks to my economic education!) and financial markets, but I focused on 2 aspects: first is financial markets as an instrument of global management of peoples and their well-being, second — financial markets as an example of the fundamental laws of nature. I always wanted to get closer to understanding the essence of these processes. However, until 2008, I was just a curious observer. I read books, watched major events, learned to compare facts. I was running a business that had nothing to do with the markets. The events of 2008 encouraged me to make my first profitable deals. And then I realized that this field is not only about self-development and curiosity — it could also become a source of permanent income. With the right approach, this income can be much higher than in other sectors of the economy. So the choice was made. What were the reasons for creating an Investment Foundation managed by artificial intelligence? Anyone who is professionally engaged in money management considers automation at some point. Computers are much more efficient than human when it comes to assets management. Robots are taking over, so it was a logical step for us. From the very beginning, we realized the inferiority of the ready-made solutions on the market and did not even consider using other people’s services. We could use the A.I, and we did. It was actually not even a question, it’s like asking an artist — why are you painting? Because we are the best at managing money. What is the market share (in particular, on cryptocurrency market) of the investment funds (including funds managed by artificial intelligence) and how do you handle the demand? If we talk about traditional financial markets, then, according to the latest data, the share of investment funds in the total volume of transactions amounts to 70%. At the same time, quantum funds account for at least 27% of all transactions on US exchanges. As for the cryptocurrency market, they are so riddled with fraud and unrealized projects that we have long since ceased to care about the competitors. There are many ordinary funds, but 80% of them close in a year and 95% of them — in three. We do not consider them competitors, as we are focused on long-term work. All their clients will eventually come to us. In long-term, the manual traders do not stand a chance against the robot. Are there any companies similar to yours in the world? Yes, sure. In our industry, only a few succeeded in achieving the degree of automation that we have. The most successful of our colleagues use qualitatively different algorithms that still require regular manual testing and customization. In most cases, those “algorithm factories” constantly have to adapt to the new market conditions. Our algorithms require human participation only at the development stage. Simply put, in most cases, operators with remote controls always follow their robots, but our robot can walk on its own. The market offers a huge number of different robots that promise to increase your capital in Forex, binary options, cryptocurrency. How are you different from them? Is it possible to earn money with such robots? Yes, certainly. If you are good at trading and investing. If you have clear money management rules backed by math. If not, you can only lose. And robots have one more limitation — they cannot bring you the profit all the time. Such robots offer a huge number of strategies, half of which is profitable, and the other half is not. Because a person is ultimately responsible for choosing strategies. That is, it is not the robot that makes the decisions, but the user who sets the trading rules. In some cases, it helps to earn quickly, and in others — to lose quickly. Such robots do not guarantee earnings, they only ensure fast trading. We have a radically different approach. Bruce Lee said: “I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who had practiced one kick 10,000 times”. Therefore, instead of ten thousand strategies, we have been developing only one strategy for several years. The robots you are talking about are the first level. There are many of them and to me they are useless. Among our competitors, there are funds that trade in traditional markets using second-level robots. There are not many of them, but they all deliver consistently good results. One of the leaders in our industry is the Medallion Foundation, created by Renaissance Technologies. For several decades, their mathematical model has been continuously multiplying their capital. We consistently implement the same model of asset management, completely removing a person from decision-making process. Development will take a few more years, but even now, our robot is already trading at the professional level. The robot needs a person only for controlling and learning new functions. Some believe that technical analysis does not apply to cryptocurrency, what do you think about this statement? I actually do not care; it is rather a question of how competent is the person who said this. If it works for you, you can use it. I think you will agree that a professional can play even on one string, and the amateur can find a thousand reasons to give up. The only thing I can do is ask in return — what can the market offer instead of technical analysis? Intuitive news trading? Fundamental analysis? Neural network? Technical analysis is a complex discipline and it takes a lot of time and mental strength to fully master it. It could take a trader 10 years to learn it. Not everyone succeeds, so technical analysis does not work for everyone. I favor a more specific approach: if it doesn’t work for someone, they should figure out why, because it is working for us quite well. Where does your Foundation operate? We advertise ourselves as a global foundation. In today’s world, good business has to be global. Among our clients are representatives of the Russian Federation, the European Union, Great Britain and China. We continue to expand our reach. As for trade, over the next 6 months we will be able to manage capital on all largest exchanges of the world. Why is there a minimum deposit amount of $ 10,000? There are several reasons. First, we need funds to maintain client accounts. We do not charge a monthly fee, only a percentage of the profits. Therefore, the size of the deposit has a lower limit. Second, $10k is not much for our target audience. It also acts as a filter that shows the solvency and how serious the intentions of a potential client are. We do not target the mass market and do not deal with dumping. On the contrary, we provide long-term, high-quality services for those who can afford it. Third, the robot independently manages risks and simultaneously controls all portfolios. We don’t like it if someone can’t enter the position because the share calculated for him by the robot is not allowed on the exchange due to restrictions. Are there any differences in the management of different amounts of investment? If yes, what are they and are there any similarities in the management of investments of one quantitative segment? Our job is to describe all the differences with strict mathematical formulas and test them thousands of times under all possible conditions. Therefore, there is no big difference for us between a 5 mln purchase or 5k purchase. Everything is described, tested, calculated, everything works. Differences in the management of large capital are even more drastic. The psychological factor in this case becomes critical. The same trader managing a demo account or a million dollar account will behave like two completely different people and make fundamentally different decisions. Our task is to completely eliminate the human factor from the money management process. What are the chances for new instruments to get into the Foundation’s portfolio? What is the basis of the selection of certain tools? Are there any common priority tools for different segments of investors? Any promising liquid instrument can be included in the portfolio of the Foundation, and the choice depends on many factors. The robot evaluates and filters the instrument on the basis of special algorithms and determines the share of an asset in the portfolio based on the results of the evaluation. All decisions must be mathematically justified, taking into account the analysis of the maximum possible amount of data. The more data on the instrument we have, the higher the quality of the decisions made and the share of the instrument in the portfolio. The choice does not depend on the category of investor. If the instrument is promising and liquid, all our clients will get profit. Can you tell more about the terms of settlements between the Foundations and investors? If someone in our market guarantees you a good profit and even specifies when you could get it, then I in turn guarantee that this is a fraud. We are most interested in customer profits, as this is the only way to offset the costs of managing his account. Imagine the following situation: The new client opened a 10k deposit and a month later, he had a total of 12k in his account. At the beginning of next month, we will ask you to transfer us 1k as a fee. 11k remains on his account, but a month later, suppose, unsuccessful deals were made and there is 10k on his account again. In this case, we do not require any payments until the deposit exceeds 11k. Suppose a month later he has 12k again. Then we will charge 50% of the difference between 11k and 12k, i.e. $500. The fact that the entire team of our foundation has long transferred the management of all its assets to our robot could also count as a guarantee. We have a direct motivation to make trading as successful as possible. We do not use the services of other funds or managers. And the second fact is that the portfolios of all clients, including our personal ones, are managed simultaneously. Can you share the success stories of the Foundation? We want to implement a demo account for this purpose. We plan to fill it with transactions and statistics from 2017, copied from real accounts, but without disclosing personal data. The demo-account will include a history of the average client from the beginning of 2017. It will explain how the robot trades and what profit you can expect from it. Do you believe that private investors, to some extent, are competitors to investment funds? What, in your opinion, is it more efficient and profitable: being a private investor or investing with funds? No, we consider them not competitors, but clients. The vast majority of our clients already have experience in investing. Beginners often think they are the smartest, that they don’t need to pay someone 50% of the income when they can easily buy and sell themselves. I admit that in the short run a private investor can earn more than a robot — but definitely not over a long period. The robot ensures a stable result day after day, year after year, while people are prone to stress, illness and psychological weakness. Also, funds, compared with private investors, have more compelling ratio of risk and return. At some time, a private investor may gain the same profit as a fund. However, the fund will achieve the same profit with much less risk. My money is controlled by a robot, although I believe in my capabilities as a trader. Does the Foundation have an affiliate program? Yes, we have an affiliate program, and at the same time, we are interested in collaborating with specialists for mutually beneficial cooperation. For example, we could consider providing service for the service for really good experts in design, advertising and marketing. If you have such specialists, let them send me their proposals and CVs. See contact details on our website. What kind of future do you see for ordinary investment funds and funds like the Mercury Foundation? It is clear to me that the share of funds managed by robots will grow steadily. Most likely, in a couple of decades only old-timers will manage money manually. Robotization applies to all spheres of life and investment has already come into play. For example, the head of Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund — the world’s largest pension fund — believes that artificial intelligence will soon completely replace asset managers. And I fully agree with him. And the largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates is developing a decision-making algorithm that can replace all management personnel over time. How do you look at the cryptocurrency market from a global perspective? Will the Bitcoin climb to 20,000$ again? And what will happen to the altcoins? If we talk about the long term prospect, like 3–5–7–10 years, then I’ll say that today we see the early stage of the cryptocurrency market. Over time, its capitalization will be measured in trillions of dollars. The best projects of this field will become an integral part of our lives. Many of them will become new Google, Facebook, Apple and Amazon. However, this will happen gradually. In order to become a mature sector of the economy, this market will have to go through many challenges. It will face issues of legislative regulation and technical problems. The scaling and bandwidth issues of most networks are still relevant, as well as legal issues. Most states are just beginning to explore the risks and opportunities associated with these technologies. And the promotion of such technologies is still very dependent on states and supranational bodies. If we talk about the short and medium terms, the prospects are not very bright. I think that in the near future the bitcoin will certainly not reach the 20,000$ mark. We are witnessing the strongest bear market and must act accordingly. The time for positive medium-term forecasts has not yet come. The industry was severely overcrowded in 2017. There was too much hot money, many economically unfeasible projects and excessively high expectations. The market will need time to stabilize and consolidate. Most likely, we are in for a rather complicated and dangerous period of instability in the market. Obviously, this will be accompanied by some cleansing of the market from weak, incompetent and unclaimed participants. This is a necessary stage on the path towards development. I think that 80% of altcoins known to us will depreciate and disappear in the next year or two for objective reasons. It will be a time of natural selection. However, strong players will only strengthen their positions in the market. Unfortunately, there will not be many of them. Therefore, in the near future, all investors will need to take a good care of the management of their portfolios. Despite the rather grim short-term and medium-term expectations, there will be some positive developments on the market. Some cryptocurrencies are likely to exceed their all-time peaks next year. And some will just look stronger than the market. This will be enough to generate profitability even under such difficult conditions. Therefore, the main task for the near future is to manage risks in a competent and very conservative manner and select the best ones on the market for investments. From a professional point of view, what would you wish to partners of our club? Depends on their goals. If they invest for the sake of emotions, then I wish them good luck and health. If they do it to earn money, I advise you to consult with professionals. This applies not only to investments, but also to any area of life. If you want the task to be solved as accurately as possible — always contact the best professionals available. And always keep learning. Your knowledge is your most reliable asset. What books would you recommend for beginner traders? If you decide that you are ready to turn trading into your profession, then start eagerly exploring everything available to you. Everything about financial markets, about macroeconomics, about psychology, about analysis and forecasting. Do not forget that money management skills play a huge role here. Ralph Vince will help you figure it out. Even if your analysis of the markets is very good, you will lose everything eventually if your money management skills are subpar. Now is a great time to learn, you have hundreds and thousands of books available on all aspects of this profession. Someone will enjoy the works of John J. Murphy or Jack Schwager, someone will learn from William D. Gann or Robert Prechter. And remember: knowledge is more important than capital! We thank Alexander for such a detailed story about the Foundation, as well as for his sincere desire to share his opinions and forecasts. If you want to entrust the management of your funds to the Mercury Foundation, type “I want to invest in the Mercury Foundation” in the personal messages of the group.
5 reasons why Azbit project will be useful for the cryptocurrency industry
https://preview.redd.it/5g90xyq9afi11.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=896f1376d3a9b4eae19c76861a79747d00edc232 A product is in demand among users, if it addresses their problems. The Azbit project has been created specifically for this purpose. During the work on their previous projects — Forex trading services and crypto exchange — the Azbit founders thoroughly studied the current problems of the crypto industry and the modern financial market. Each of the Azbit key services aims to address one or several of these problems. 1. Uncertainty of cryptocurrency regulation. Financial regulators of most countries can’t reach a consensus and decide on the status of cryptocurrencies and tokens in general. In such conditions the cryptocurrency industry has proven to be vulnerable. We have studied this situation on our own experience and provide banking, trading and investment services of our platform to blockchain businesses and private users, taking into account all the current requirements of regulators. This guarantees to platform’s investors and users the security and legality of their investments and transactions. 2. Difficult relations of the banking and cryptocurrency sectors. Over the past year a lot of banks have announced a one-sided stoppage of servicing blockchain businesses and put their existence under threat. The Azbit project is working on obtaining its own banking license and will provide legal banking services to the crypto industry, which is in great need of them. 3. Crypto investors’ need for secure and profitable management of their crypto assets. Azbit will provide crypto investors with convenient and secure tools for managing their assets – trading and investment accounts. Investors will be able to analyze account profitability, study the success rate of the strategies, and make the most optimal investment decisions. 4. Crypto traders’ need to attract borrowed funds as a matter of increasing trading profit. Within the framework of the Azbit ecosystem, traders will be able to trade on the cryptocurrency multi-exchange within their own deposits using leverage (margin trading). The most successful traders can open access to their trading statistics and attract additional investments through the Azbit trading-investment functionality – CopyTrade, ShareTrade and Portfolio-management accounts. 5. The problem of cryptocurrency services fragmentation, the lack of a single cryptocurrency ecosystem. On the current crypto market users have to use dozens of crypto services at the same time. Fiat-to-crypto exchange, trading, storage and transfer of assets, issuing cards, buying trading bots - all these common operations have to be performed on different services, each time users have to pass a new identification procedure, losing profit on numerous fees and commissions and risking to fall victim to hackers. The Azbit project will offer users a secure crypto exchange ecosystem, which makes it possible to profitably and conveniently deposit and transfer crypto assets; provides posibilities to invest, trade and receive a full range of banking services – and it’s all within the framework of the current cryptocurrency legislation. In fact, the Azbit project is a convenient and secure portal for entering the cryptocurrency world, which, without a doubt, is the future of the financial world. And the Azbit team intends to be among its first builders.
My name is Marek Hawk and I am a professional trader of Horizon Trading team. For today’s article we selected a controversial topic often discussed in trading community, it is the Martingale trading system. Would you be interested in a trading strategy that is virtually 100% profitable? Many finds this system as gambler’s tool with high risk exposure and they do not think about starting with the Martingale at all. But the Martingale strategy is based on probability theory, and if your pockets are deep enough, it has a near 100% success rate. Does it really work? Is it possible to win always in the end? Let’s find out!
How Martingale Works
The Martingale system is a simple process that involves doubling your bets after a loss. The idea is that if you can make a trade that offers probabilities, you eventually win and make enough money on the win to cover all your previous losses, and have a profit left over equal to your first bet. The Martingale is a mechanism of placing double bet in case of loss. A martingale strategy relies on the theory of mean reversion. In the end you should win at some time, the theory says, and you should make a profit. Let’s look at mechanics of the martingale system.
Examples of the Martingale Strategy
Let’s assume trading strategy which works with 1:1 risk-reward ratio and initial risk for first trade is 100 $. Your initial account balance is 10 000 USD. https://preview.redd.it/43szidw2w9b31.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=443f0d0f241e73e094ae197636ca5ad83a184cb5 First trade was speculation on growth and your long trade worked out. In another situation you found an interesting entry level to open the new long trade, but the speculation did not work out and you are back to the initial bankroll value. Next trade you needed to double your risk and you needed to open a larger position to cover the previous loss and to gain profit. Unfortunately, you suffered another loss and you had to double your risk again to 400 $. Next trade you won, and your equity raised to 10 200 $. The problem with the Martingale is the situation when you get a long streak of losing trades. You must always double your risk and in the end your last trade in the row could be huge portion of the capital, and you can be still wrong…
One of the reasons the Martingale strategy is so popular in the currency market is because, unlike stocks, currencies tend to go back to their mean. Although companies in term of probabilities can bankrupt more often, countries cannot. For example, even if currency is devalued or depreciated, the chances that currency's value reaches zero are very low. Principle of averaging the price of the Martingale trading strategy. The forex market also offers the ability to earn interest which allows traders to offset a portion of their losses with interest income. This means that a martingale trader may want to only trade the strategy on currency pairs in the direction of positive carry. In other words, they would buy a currency with a high interest rate and earn that interest while, at the same time, selling a currency with a low interest rate. With many lots, interest income can be very substantial and could work to reduce your average entry price.
In this article I described principles of the Martingale trading strategy. The system may look like a perfect winning system; however, it carries huge risk exposure of your capital. A trader needs to be prepared to work on professional money management techniques in case of building working Martingale system. I gave you some hints which tools can help managing this mathematical trading system. I described the examples of trading the Martingale trading techniques on forex markets.
The stock market can't go up in perpetuity without BLS and job data reflecting economic growth as it seems to be doing now. The question is "how long will people continue to accept the declining economic statistics and the growing fed QE and the ZIRP free money policy which is inflating a derivatives bubble such as humanity has never seen?". How long will stock market players, FOREX traders, and dollar holders across the globe continue to accept these things before we reach a "Tipping Point" of panic selling across the board? The amount of real economic growth it would take to equal out the amount of QE and derivatives now in the system is unquestionably impossible to achieve. Our economy would have to grow several fold overnight in real terms IE producing manufacturing etc... to maintain the current bank derivatives holdings. The Current ZIRP and derivatives bubble is a catch 22. Most of the derivatives created are interest rate derivatives betting that interest rates will stay close to 0% in perpetuity. The banks therefore need to accumulate more interest rate derivatives to pay for the older ones. They purchase more derivatives by borrowing money at close to 0% from the fed. As you can see if the interest rate increases by even 1% it would throw everything into the toilet. Therefore the Fed is obligated to continue its ZIRP program or else face a derivatives bubble bursting and pretty much every bank in the world failing all at once. The QE program stimulates the Stock market. QE is primarily a ploy to get people to buy stocks and it doesn't even scratch the surface on the HUNDREDS OF TRILLIONS of dollars being created by ZIRP and interest rate derivatives. Mathematically the QE program should be able to be tapered without causing a bank collapse, however the panic stock selling that would be caused by tapering would. Therefore the Fed is in a corner.
Interest rates are at zero.
Increasing interest rates causes a derivatives collapse.
Negative interest rates causes a run on treasuries.
QE tapering causes panic in the stock markets.
No QE tapering causes people to realize that the economy isn't recovering.
The best plan that the FED has so far?
Talk about taper so people think the economy is recovering.
Don't ever actually taper because it would cause panic stock selling.
Keep interest rates at zero.
This has worked so far. It is however doomed to fail as continued QE will force people to eventually realize that the "recovery" it's self is very phony. The problem is there is no other option. The idea for profit is kind of like a pyramid scheme. The insiders will "cash out" before everyone else and leave everyone else holding the US dollar bag. What do they cash out to? Hard assets my friend. Any asset that you can physically touch is fair game for "cashing out". No more financial instruments. They will fail with the banks. If you want a resolution to this matter send this message to every broker that you know. TL;DR There is a banking collapse coming soon. This period of prolonged free FED money is simply giving time to those at the top of the pyramid to buy hard assets and get out of the US dollar. If you want to stop these people from positioning their chess pieces you should send this message to every stock broker, FOREX trader, and low level banker that you know. Peace Brothers and Sisters, gojo345
BlockChain Enable a Quadrillion-Dollar Derivatives Market?
https://preview.redd.it/iwewapkg8mz11.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=9b52f51960172844af71917aec191dcfd6031bf9 CAN BLOCKCHAIN ENABLE A QUADRILLION-DOLLAR DERIVATIVES MARKET? IT’S A REAL POSSIBILITY. By 2028, the world economy has exploded with exponential economic growth. BlockChain is now the heart of commerce and trade. Investopedia’s valuation on the Derivatives Market now stands true at $1.2 quadrillion. And you are now very rich with your array of futures, derivatives and cryptocurrencies on hand. Isn’t this a nice possibility? Now, imagine travelling back to 2018. You are scrolling your news feed. The headlines show in 2017 alone, BlockChain startups have raised $1.2 billion worth initial coin offering (ICOs). ICOs enable startups, to raise money from the general public by allowing them to buy a stake in their business; which comes in a form of a token or digital currency. It looks like the public are beginning to understand the potential of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology. A Facebook notification pops up on your mobile phone. Your friend has posted an article on your Facebook wall. The article is about Ethereum, the hot new BlockChain technology that is creating even bigger ripples in the finance world than its predecessor BitCoin. It seems that Ethereum is now the birthplace of many decentralized platforms, which raise funds via ICOs. As more funds are raised, these platforms get better and this drives up the value of Ethereum. The top platforms are Golem, Augur, Basic Attention Tokens and Gnosis, which collectively ring in $1.27 billion in market value. The amount of money that has been invested into Ethereum based BlockChain technology shows that people see Blockchain as the future of commerce and finance. This all sounds good and you’re ready to participate in a hot ICO. But as a possible new investor in an ICO based on the Ethereum blockchain, how do you get started? Which platform and ICO should you consider investing in?
YOU WILL NEED TO GET A WALLET. Wallets are like digital bank accounts, they hold your tokens and other cryptocurrencies you plan to buy and hold. Most ICOs are built on Ethereum smart contracts and your Wallet has to support receiving tokens. In an ICO, you send currency (typically ETH or BTC) to the company issuing a new token and receive the amount of tokens based on the given exchange rate by the company. MyEtherWallet is one of the most popular Ethereum Wallets because it is linked to the BlockChain, has excellent security features, and best of all it gives you full control of your Wallet (unlike other online wallets that are controlled by third party companies). You can get MyEtherWallet here.
RESEARCH EXTENSIVELY ON AVAILABLE ICOS As with any form of investment, you need to do your research and due diligence. Unlike the research on conventional investments that look at statistics, company performance, average daily volume and annual yield, ICOs require a different kind of analysis. Often times, millions of dollars are raised in ICOs with no product or company track record. Most traditional investors would not invest as the risk outweigh the gains from the investment. It feels like a gamble.
How then would you know if an ICO is worth investing into? First of all, you would need to study its platform concept, market potential and sustainability for long-term growth. Is it easy for users to adopt and understand? Do the Founders and Developers of the platform have sound knowledge of economics, inflation, block size, fees, administration, security and human behavior? Does the crypto-economic system have what it takes to be sustainable? Who is the team behind the platform? Are they knowledgeable and experienced? Is this a revolutionary or game-changing product that has massive market potential? Take Level01 as an example. It is the World’s First Brokerless Derivatives Exchange in Partnership with Thomson Reuters. The concept is innovative, more importantly; it has an enticing proposition because it addresses gaps, issues and problems faced by traditional trading markets. This facilitates a stable, robust and potentially profitable investment eco-system. How so? Remember Investopedia’s valuation of the derivatives market at a thrilling $1.2 quadrillion? This estimate is debatable because it needed to consider, “notional value”, versus actual market value. The lack of certainty on pricing and not having accurate market data can be frustrating. Brokers also charge a fee for both ends; buying and selling, which makes it expensive to participate in trade. In addition, not everyone relishes in the prospect of understanding financial data, terms and conditions. These factors are barriers to entry that reduces the pool of investors in the derivatives market. The Founders of Level01 saw all these and sought to develop solutions that can make investing easy, transparent, secure and fair, by using the Blockchain and partnership with financial market leader, Thomson Reuters. AN APP THAT MAKES ANYONE A BETTER INVESTOR Whether you are a first time investor or an experienced investor, the Level01 App will help you make better investment decisions, save time and get better at investing in the Derivatives Market. Its sleek interface, smart data feed and intuitive features are designed to fit all investor types to make the trading experience as easy as 1, 2, 3. CHANGING THE GAME WITH ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE When you log on, the Level01 platform, you will have FairSenseTM Artificial Intelligence on hand to analyze trade intent patterns of all users on the platform to find the best matches for you. Once a match is found, it employs its proprietary dynamic fair price-balancing algorithm to show fair pricing for both sides of the trade contract. This saves investors time, speeds up trade, and keeps inflation in check with fair pricing. CREDIBLE AND RELIABLE DATA FEED FROM THOMSON REUTERS Level01 raised the bar further by collaborating with Thomson Reuters. They integrated and enabled live streaming real-time market prices for Forex, Index, Cryptocurrency, Commodities and Stocks directly from Thomson Reuters, a global leader for information and data sources for professional markets. Having a 150-year-old brand name like Thomson Reuters lends tremendous credibility to the data and keeps investors informed of actual value prior to the commencement of the trade. AUTOMATED SMART CONTRACTS As if that was not enough, the Level01 is designed as an exchange and trading platform with a system of smart contracts that resolves trust, emotion and irresponsibility in an efficient, transparent, automated manner. These automated digital contracts saves time and money for investors so that they can concentrate on analyzing data and deciding on investments. SUSTAINABLE GROWTH DRIVEN BY USERS You may be thinking by now, that is all well and good, but what are they doing to make this unique Derivatives Exchange sustainable and primed for growth? The designers of Level01 looked towards attracting quality investors by incorporating a fair rating system based on statistics and empowering them with the ability to add value to the network, and derive value for themselves. Level01 rewards users when they participate in the ecosystem. To make it even more enticing, the Level01 platform enables Trade Room Hosting, which allows users to earn commission. These lucrative set points are attractive to users who will jump on board and increase the liquidity base, which of course, benefits everyone. BETTER FINANCIAL LIQUIDITY Sometimes being able to sell is as important as being able to buy. This means your assets and investments can be easily converted to cash. Level01 gives you full control over your own funds by allowing your deposits and withdrawals to be done instantly. You can also change the native platform LVX tokens between BitCoin and Ethereum for better financial liquidity. WIDER FINANCIAL PORTFOLIO Level01 allows you to trade both traditional and cryptocurrency market assets to give you greater ease and freedom to plan a diverse portfolio to suit your needs whether you like to play it safe or take profitable risks. DIVERSE AND EXPERIENCED TEAM An international team with accolades, achievements and awards helms Level01 Derivatives Exchange. There is a mathematician and data analyst, a software engineer and system architect, a highly ranked digital marketing specialist, an expert in corporate operations, a consultant in banking and finance, a key quantitative analyst consultant who over saw $25B AUM, a corporate strategist and brand planning expert and an inventor-CEO with a string of successes under his belt, including founding a successful public listed company in Australia. GROWING INTEREST Level01 just begun but it is already making waves in the cryptocurrency and investment world. Forums and chat groups are buzzing with conversations as seasoned cryptocurrency investors hop on the bandwagon, eager to sweep up ICOs before the rest of the world notices. Coin Telegraph, which is the top news portal on cryptocurrency, described Level01 partnership with Thomson Reuters as a great game-changer that will allow general public to trade derivatives like a pro using big data previously only available to institutional traders. Could this be your ticket to making your 2028 the best year ever? As if you invested in Google back in 2004. You can check out more about this upcoming platform here.
10-16 02:23 - 'Hurling Rocks at Caimans: A Cowboy's Tale' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/mine_myownbiz13 removed from /r/Bitcoin within 56-66min
''' In 1991, my mother had the foresight to leave Venezuela for the United States. She sacrificed a medical profession, her family, her friends, and the comforts of her own land and culture. It was before Chavez, before communism, before famine, before societal collapse. She didn’t know it at the time (perhaps she felt it), but she was saving our lives. Recently, I was asked by her brother, my uncle, to give some words of advice to his youngest son, whom he sent to live in upstate New York earlier this year in the hopes that he might find some opportunity there. He’s 17 and fascinated by cryptocurrencies, but knows next to nothing about them. I wrote this letter for him. Hello Cousin, I write you in the hopes that you will take away something useful from my own experience. There’s a saying in English that’s always stayed with me, “There’s no such thing as a free lunch.” In other words, nothing in life is easy, not money, not love, not anything. Nothing worth your time is ever going to be easy. There’s no free lunch! I first got into trading in 2008. Your dad had heard from a friend that Citigroup stock was going to pop soon and that he should buy it. The US Stock Market can only be traded by U.S. citizens and special types of corporations, so he asked me to act as a proxy for his investment, and I did. I did it because I thought it would be a get-rich quick rich scheme that I could learn to do on my own. At this time I was in graduate school and unsure of what to do with my life. I’ve always been good at school. It’s easy for me. I had professors telling me I’d make a great scholar or a great lawyer, but at the time I was teaching middle-school English in a poor neighborhood of Miami. I had a big decision to make. Naturally, I decided to get rich quick! I spent 2-3 months reading books on stock trading and executing simulated trades on practice accounts. I learned to work a variety of trading platforms so that I could trade several markets around the world, which I did. I quit my job in the fall of 2008 and took my entire life savings of $20,000 into the market. The broker gave me 3.5 times leverage on my money and I had $70,000 of available trading capital. When your dad made his deposit my account had a trading capacity of over $2,000,000. With that kind of margin, I was able to turn $20,000 into over $160,000 in less than 9 months! I was making over $15,000 a month. As a teacher, at the time, I think I made about $2,700 a month. So, as you can imagine, I thought I was a genius! I was getting rich quick, right? Wrong. There’s no such thing as a free lunch. When your dad sold his share of stock being held in my account I was also forced to liquidate my own positions. I had bought call options on the future price of Apple stock, and the way that kind of trading works is that your money is locked until the future event you are betting on occurs. If you liquidate before a certain date there may be a penalty to pay. In my case, it was $35,000. After this, I had the good sense to step away for a moment, to cash out my chips and think about what came next. Also, I didn’t have a $2,000,000 trading desk anymore, and without the added margin, there was no way I could continue to trade the way I wanted to. I wanted to make medium to long term trades, because one of the first things I learned along the way is that short term trading (day-trading, scalping) is, for the most part, a scam. There are technical reasons for this, but trust me, short-term trading any market, be it cryptos, stocks, or commodities is a bad idea. You will lose money with an almost 100% guarantee. I walked away from the stock market in 2009 with $150,000 cash but no market to trade it in. So, I did the next best thing: I bought a nice new car (in cash), took a crazy trip to Europe, and consumed over $25,000 worth of shit I didn’t need, and when it was all said and done, I went back to teaching. I taught at an even poorer neighborhood this time. I had gang members in my class. There were arrests on a monthly basis. Some of the kids had psychological problems, emotional problems, learning disabilities, and many of them were being abused at home in one way or another. This was a middle school. Twelve year-olds. I did that job and others like it because I believe in morality and in helping people. That’s the reason I’m writing you this letter, because I want to help you, and I think it's the moral thing to do. And you’ll see what I mean by that when I tell you about cryptocurrencies and the blockchain later on. Anyway, during that year of teaching I discovered a new market to trade. One that would give me 100 to 1 leverage on my money. One where I could manage a $5,000,000 trading desk with only $50,000! That market is called FOREX, and its the global “fiat” currency market. It’s the opposite of the crypto market, which is the global “digital” currency market. More on what all that means later, but for now just understand that FOREX is the most liquid and highly traded market in the world. After the school-year ended in May of 2011, I took that summer off to research the FOREX market. I read many new books on trading, which were specific to the currency markets. I watched hundreds of hours of video on technical analysis and even more hours of “financial news,” which is mostly economic propaganda, but I won’t digress here. The point is that by late August of 2011, I was once again ready to dive head-first into trading. This time, I thought, it would be even better, because I’d have even more money to “play” with! This time, I thought, I’m going to get rich! I’ll stop here and tell you that the journey up until this point had not been the smoothest. While trading stocks there were many days when I lost hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of dollars in hours, sometimes in minutes! You may imagine the added level of stress I had to deal with because I was trading with my entire life’s savings and my wife had just given birth to our son, Sebastian. He was a toddler at the time. I’ll give you a brief example of trading’s unpredictable nature, and the unpredictability of financial markets in general: I had spent several months preparing for my first live trade. I’d read many books and practiced my ass off until I thought I was ready. I had a system, a strategy. I was going to get rich, quick! The first week I traded stocks I lost $10,000 in 3 days. I will never be able to fully articulate what it feels like lose 50% of all the money you’ve ever had in less than 72 hours. All the while knowing that if you fail, it will be your family who suffers the most. You might be wondering: “Shit, why’d you do it?” or “Why’d you keep doing it?” That’s understandable. After all, my academic background is in history and political science, not finance and economics, not statistics. Well, cousin, I did it because I’m a cowboy. A risk-taker. I’ve always been one. I remember being four or five, at our grandfather’s farm, and lassoing calves in the cattle pen by myself. Men were around, but they let me do it. Although, in retrospect, some of those calves were twice my size and could have easily trampled me, I don’t ever remember feeling scared---I loved that shit! I remember sneaking out and walking down to the pond, then going up to the water’s edge to see if I could spot the caiman that lived there. I would even hurl rocks at it sometimes, just to see it move! Another time, I found myself alone in the dark with a 15-foot anaconda not more than a yard away, and all I could do was stare at it, not out of fear, but wonder. Again, in hindsight, probably not the best of ideas, but I’ve never been scared to follow the path laid out by my own curiosity. I am a natural risk-taker. I tell my city-slicker friends that it's because I come from a land of cowboys, where men are born tough and always ready for a challenge. Cowboys are risk-takers by nature, they have to be, the land demands it of them. There’ll be more on risk-taking and the role it plays a little later, but for now, let’s focus on FOREX and what I learned from it. After the school-year ended in May of 2011, I took that summer off to research the FOREX market. I read many new books on trading, which were specific to the currency markets. I watched hundreds of hours of video on technical analysis and even more hours of “financial news,” which is mostly economic propaganda, but I won’t digress here. The point is that by late August of 2011, I was once again ready to dive head-first into trading. This time, I thought, it would be even better, because I’d have even more money to “play” with! This time, I thought, I’m going to get rich! Trading FOREX was not easy. The hardest part was that it had to be done between 3:00 am - 11:00 am, because these are peak trading hours in London and New York, where the majority of the market’s money resides. This means major price moves, the price swings that can be traded, for the most part, happen during this time window. For me, this meant I had to live a type of quasi-vampiric lifestyle, waking up at 8:00 pm and going to sleep at noon, every day. At first, it takes a toll on your social life, and eventually starts to affect you mentally and emotionally. There is a certain degree of isolation that comes with it, too. You are awake when your friends and family are asleep, and asleep when they are awake. It can get lonely. However, my first six months of trading FOREX were OK. I wasn’t making $15,000 a month anymore, but I was making more than I would have been, had I been teaching. However, I had a deep-rooted feeling of uncertainty. Although I’d had some initial success in trading stocks, and now currencies, I’d always felt, at the back of my mind, that I’d just been lucky, and nothing more. This fear materialized itself in June of 2012 when the strategy I’d been using for some time was no longer profitable. I panicked. I started experimenting with new strategies, which only made matters worse, and lead to even more panic. It is no exaggeration to say that trading is one-third mathematical, and two-thirds psychological. No amount of books, videos, or paid mentorships, which I also consumed, had prepared me for this eventual reality check: I didn’t know what the fuck I was doing. I had no clue. I left FOREX humbled, with barely enough money to buy a decent car, much less trade any time soon. The next two years, 2013-2015, were some of the hardest of my life. Harder even than 1991-1993, which, up to that point, had been the worst couple years I’d ever experienced. Those were my first years in the United States, and they were full of hardship. A type of hardship I’d never experienced before, and never have since. Remember the school I mentioned? The one with the gangs and the troubled kids and all the poverty? Well, I attended schools just like that as a kid, too, until I turned 15. I had many more encounters with caimans and anacondas there, except now they had first names, and for some reason, were always more prone to strike! Anyway, those were tough times, but not as tough as the post-FOREX experience. Failure at FOREX took a mental toll on me. After all, I had gambled everything, my entire future on the bet that I could earn a living as a professional trader. I realized I had failed because of my own intellectual laziness. I always knew I had been lucky, and instead of using the wonderful gift of leisure-time the universe had granted me through that initial success to fill the knowledge gaps I knew would keep me from true and long-lasting success, I let my ego convince me otherwise, and talked myself into making decisions I knew to be extremely dangerous and outside my expertise. I wanted to wrestle the caiman! Cowboy shit. Irrational, youthful folly. Needless to say, I lost 80% of my account, which was also my family’s savings, in less than four months. Now, I had a real problem. How was I going to pay the bills? What was I going to do with my life? I was 30 years old, had a five-year old son, very little real-world work experience and a college degree in history and political science. How was I going to make money? Serious money? Enough money to help my mom retire and give my son all the advantages I never had? Enough to deliver on the promises I had made to my wife during all those years she put up with my crazy hours and wild ideas about getting rich quick? What was I going to do now? I tell you, cousin, these are the kinds of questions you will find yourself asking if you do not heed my advice. I didn’t want to teach anymore. I didn’t want to do anything anymore. I was depressed. I had what we call here in the United States, “a quarter-life crisis.” I abused alcohol and drugs to cope with the pain of my failure. I was weak. I was unprepared for the realities of life. I did not yet understand, even at 30 years old, that there is no such thing as a free lunch. I won’t dwell on the specifics of the hardships I endured during these two years, except to say that I almost lost it all, including my life, but I’m grateful I didn't. However, it was also during this period, 2013-2015, that I began to fill gaps in my knowledge about markets, economics, and the nature of money itself. Gaps I knew would need to be filled one way or another, if I was ever going to trade or invest in anything again. Luckily, towards the end of my FOREX days, I had come to realize there was something wrong with all the information I had been given by the mainstream media, specifically on the topics of economics and finance. I noticed that nothing they ever said about the markets turned out to be accurate, that mainstream financial “news” could not be trusted for investment purposes. It took tens of thousands of dollars in losses and several years of headaches before I learned that lesson. I’m glad I finally did. I decided to use the last bit of money I had left to buy some gold and silver (by this time I had begun to understand the definition of sound money) and to open up a brick and mortar business. I did not want to work for anyone else, only for myself. I wanted to be an entrepreneur. The trouble was that the only business I had enough money for was a mobile car wash. So, a friend and I bought a van, some pressure cleaners, a whole bunch of soap and got to work! We were going to hustle hard, work warehouse and shopping center parking lots, save enough to reinvest into our business and go after the luxury car market. We were going to charge rich people $1000s to detail Ferraris and Lamborghinis, and it was only going to take six months, tops! Great plan, no? Easy money, right? Well, we washed cars for exactly one day before we realized what a terrible mistake we had made. It turns out car-washing is a backbreaking, low-paying, and degrading business. There’s no free lunch, remember that. My friend and I were lucky. We quickly transitioned our business from a mobile car wash to a painting/pressure cleaning company, and had immediate success. In less than two months we were hired as subcontractors by a much larger company and I was more or less making what I had made teaching, but working for myself. After a couple of months, my partner and I were already envisioning the hiring of our first employees. Cool, right? No. About a year after we started the business, my partner, a high-school friend of mine, a guy I’d known for more than ten years, decided he didn’t want to do it anymore. That he was too tired of the hardships that come with that kind of work. Tired of making the constant sacrifices required to be successful in business. So, he quit. I lost everything I had invested, because without him, I could not operate the business on my own, and our corporate partner dropped us. I begged him not to quit. I told him that business takes time, that there’s no free lunch, and that we would be rewarded at some point for our hustle and hard work; that we would be able to hire laborers to do the work in less than 6 months, and that we would then focus on sales, and start to make some real money. He did not care. He had his own demons, and chose to steal from me and end our friendship instead of facing the hardship head-on. By this time, however, I was already used to failure, and although I was still coping with the mental stress of having failed at something I once had thought would be my profession, it still did not stop me from following my curiosity, as I always have. It was during these years that I first learned about Bitcoin. About blockchain. About the nature of money, economic history, the effects of monetary policy on financial markets. I’d wake up at 6:00 am every day, paint houses, pressure clean dirty sidewalks and walls, spend over 2 hours commuting back home every night, and then stay up for as long as my body would allow learning about macroeconomics and the history of markets. I researched the nature of debt and gold a medium of exchange. I read about counter and Austrian economics. I became a libertarian, later, an anarchist, and, after almost two years study, I began to discover legitimate sources of financial news and information, intelligent voices that I could trust. I had acquired enough knowledge and experience to discern the truth from the propaganda, and it was during these same years, these terrible times of hardship, that I finally learned a most valuable lesson on money and markets: capital preservation is the key. Remember, when I said we’d come back to risk-taking? Well, the trick is not to take it, but to manage it. The secret is education, knowledge. Knowledge truly is, power. Traders are only as successful as the depth of their own knowledge, because it's the only way to keep in check that inherent, paralyzing fear which “playing” with money eventually engenders. As a trader, you must have complete confidence in your “playing” abilities, and this is something only achieved through much study and practice. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, ever. I want you to know that Bitcoin, the blockchain, and cryptocurrencies are NOT get-rich-quick schemes. They are NOT Ponzi schemes either. They are cutting-edge financial technology, and an emerging asset class. The blockchain has been compared to the agricultural revolution of the Neolithic age and the invention of writing by ancient Mesopotamians, in terms of its importance and potential impact on human civilization. It is a technology which will eventually affect and reshape almost every single industry in the global economy. In the next two decades, all types of industries will be impacted and disrupted by this technology--banking, real estate, healthcare, the legal industry, politics, education, venture capital, just to name a few! This technology allows for something called “decentralized store of value.” Basically, it allows for the creation of an alternative financial system, one where power resides in the hands of the people, instead of corrupt governments and corporations, so that currency crises like the one Venezuela has recently experienced, may one day be completely eradicated, like polio, or bubonic plague. I will tell you that, at 17 years old, you have an amazing opportunity to set yourself up for incredible success in this brand new industry called the blockchain. There are entire professions that will be birthed into existence in the next 5, 10, and 20 years, in the same way the internet made possible millions of people around the world to work from home, wearing their pajamas, doing a million different things--things which were unimaginable to those who knew the world before the advent of the internet. Of course, it will require a great deal of work and effort on your part, but I assure you, it will be totally worth it! Today, I am 35 years old. I run a successful ghostwriting business that I manage from the comfort of my own home. I invest exclusively in Bitcoin and precious metals, and hope to retire by the time I’m 40. Well, not really retire, but start on a much-anticipated new phase of my life, one in which I don’t have to worry about financial independence anymore. To that end, cousin, here is my advice:
Forget about getting rich quick. There’s no free lunch!
Learn the English language, it is one of the tools you'll need for success.
Work or go to school. Either way, dedicate yourself to learning about this new technology as much as you can, and begin to save, as much as you can, in Bitcoin.
I reviewed the website you told me about, [[link]3 , and while I respect, and to a certain extent admire what those gentlemen are doing, I can tell you, unequivocally, that taking those courses won’t turn you into a trader. It won’t make you rich quick. Far from it. In fact, there is nothing that these "warriors" will teach you, that you could not teach yourself for free at [[link]4 . I’ll end it here. Hopefully, you made it to the end and took away a nugget or two. Please feel free to ask me anything you want about any of it, cousin. I’m always here to help. ''' Hurling Rocks at Caimans: A Cowboy's Tale Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: mine_myownbiz13 1: ww*.cri*toguerre*os*c**/ 2: w*w***bypips.com/ 3: www.criptoguerreros.com]^^1 4: www.babypips.com]^^2 Unknown links are censored to prevent spreading illicit content.
81% of retail accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The top 7 problems as a legit trader are nothing like the problems as a beginning trader. My Top 7, in no particular order. 1. Every trade entered at around the same time is inherently correlated, so if my win rate is 50% and I have 5 positions op... For traders who are chasing their dream of becoming a full time Forex trader, ... We found evidence that day-trader profitability is related to movements in the Nasdaq Composite Index.” All this really does is support our own views on day trading. It’s harder and riskier than the longer term swing trading. But, this still isn’t enough to nail down the statistic as fact, so let’s move o Not general or contrived statistics, but rather the success (and failure) rates I witnessed while working at day trading firms from 2005 to 2010. I’ve also conversed with several other trading firm owners/managers on their success rates between 2005 and 2015. Numbers varied slightly but were in line with the day trading success rates I discuss below. In total, about 2000 people who attempted ... I’m sure this is the most common question by the new traders! There is a reason behind the popularity of this viral question! Actually, more than 90% retail traders are the losers; and a number of them are very much active on the Social Media like... There are two trading statistics to keep a close eye on: Your win-rate and risk-reward ratio. Your win-rate is how many trades you win, expressed as a percentage. For example, if you win 60 trades out of 100, your win-rate is 60%. A day trader should work to maintain a win-rate above 50%. #Best Highlight #Now Shop for cheap price Forex Trader Profitability Statistics And Is Forex Trading Profitable 2015 .
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